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БД: From: cliff doerksen [mailto:cliff.doerksen@gmail.com] I'm a Chicago film critic bracing for the arrival of The Da Vinci Code in theaters later this month. As you may or may not know, a central conceit of the novel is that Jesus and Mary Magdalene were married and had children, and that Mary relocated to Gaul/France post-crucifixion. The novel treats this notion in demographically naive terms, as if it meant that a narrow and constricted lineage would proceed from the issue of Mary and Jesus, such that a few living French people could today easily and incontestably be identified as His heirs and heiresses apparent. My own impression is that pretty much everyone alive today have equal claim to being a direct descendant of Jesus, assuming his bloodline survives. Have I got that right? Thanks for any light you can throw on the matter, Cliff Doerksen
Ответов - 8
БД: From: Steven Ruggles, ruggles.steven@gmail.com Ken Wachter (1978) estimated that a given person in contemporary Britain would have ancestors from about 85% of the people alive in 1066. But the result depends on the assumptions, in particular how likely it is for a given ancester to fulfill multiple ancestor roles. This in turn depends on the extent of social and geographic endogamy as well as social and geographic mobility. We have no good estimates of these things. Wachter didn't provide much in the way of sensitivity tests, but I'll bet that a plausible range of assumptions would yield a large range of results. Wachter and Laslett wrote a piece in the same volume on patrliline extinction, which is also relevant. Wachter, K.W. 1978. Ancestors at the Norman Conquest. Pp 153-161 in Wachter, K. W., with E. A. Hammel, and P. Laslett. *Statistical Studies of Historical Social Structure*. New York, Academic Press. Wachter, K.W., and P. Laslett. 1978. Measuring patriline extinction for modeling social mobility in the past. Pp 113-135 in Wachter, K.W., with E.A. Hammel, and P. Laslett. *Statistical Studies of Historical Social Structure*. New York, Academic Press.
БД: From: John Giacobbe [mailto:jgiacobbe1@cox.net] This is a very interesting topic. I teach a high school statistics course, and use demography as one of my units. Does anyone have any references or additional info on this topic? Not so much the Jesus angle, but the general discussion of genetic affiliation and human numbers. thanks, john giacobbe
БД: Dear Sir As I understand it, the proportion of the human race with Jesus's bloodline would approach a high asymptote(a limit it could get closer and closer to without reaching) leaving a few people who were not descended from him, all else being equal. Of course all else might not be equal and strict inbreeding might preserve a separate line. If Jesus's genes were widespread, some people would probably still have more of them than others. I don't know very much about it, but it's a sort of topic that's been discussed in different literature -see under "Why we are not all named Smith" Yours Sincerely, Alan E. Dunne
БД: From: Sklepp@aol.com [mailto:Sklepp@aol.com] for kinship among Europeans, see Alex Shoumatoff, The Mountain of Names (1985), especially the 9th chapter, "the Kinship of Mankind." He cites a study that calculates that a child born in England in 1947 would be the descendant of 5 out of every 6 Englishmen alive in 1086 at the time of the Domesdday survey. He has other examples. bloodline is something else again, it is a legal fiction of a patrilineal society practicing primogeniture or some other restrictive inheritance system--and anyone who has studied the dynastic wars of European aristocrats knows that bloodlines are constantly dying out because of infertility or the absence of sons, torn apart by fratricidal wars or by grasping uncles or those always evil step-mothers, compromised by bastardy and adultery, overthrown by peasant and bourgeois revolts and a host of other accidents. so haven't read the book, but the premise seems unlikely Susan Klepp
БД: From: Giovanni Ruffini [mailto:grr919@gmail.com] Is Wachter's work on ancestor duplication that latest on this issue? I've used his model in a wildly different context (Roman Egypt) but couldn't pursue it as far as I would've liked, partially because I had the vague sense that there was not much bibliography on the subject since 1978. I would be interested to hear whether others on this list can fill that gap in my knowledge. Giovanni Ruffini
БД: From: Desjardins Bertrand [mailto:bertrand.desjardins@umontreal.ca] For every given generation, some people don't reproduce, some reproduce a little, and some reproduce a lot. Unless something extraordinary happens, anybody who reproduces a lot will fatally appear in the family trees of everyone after a number of generations. This principle is modulated by the size and timing of in-migrations. Those who don't reproduce and a portion of those who reproduce only a little disappear have no descendants after a while (20-25% of those who marry have no descendants after the third generation. The Jesus-MarieMadeleine/DaVinci code angle that started this thread (that there would be descendants of Jesus today, but only a limited number) requires that two conditions be met: Jesus had to reproduce only a little and all his descendants had to both reproduce and reproduce just a little. If 20% of couples have only one or two married children, then meeting the two conditions to this day has a probability of .2 times 20 centuries times 4 generations/century, or .2 at the 80th power. Even with 30%, or 40%, or 50%, the odds are extremely low that a couple can have descendants over 80 generations but only a few! As for genetic affiliation and human numbers, we have an observation of the French-Canadian population of Quebec from its beginnings in the early 17th century to today and theses questions are being studied. We know that virtually the entire French Canadian gene pool originates from around 6000 French immigrants who came before the British takeover. Those who settled before 1680 account for two thirds of the whole. See: Hubert Charbonneau et al., The First French Canadians. Pioneers in the St.Lawrence Valley. Newark, London and Toronto, University of Delaware Press and Associated University Presses, 1993. 236 p. GAGNON, Alain et Evelyne HEYER . "Fragmentation of Quйbec's Genetic Pool (Canada) : Evidences from the Genetic Contribution of Founders per Region in 17th and 18th Centuries". American journal of Physical Anthropology 114: 30-41, 2001. Bertrand Desjardins Dйpartement de dйmographie Universitй de Montrйal
Wolverrum: По такому вопросу - и такую дискуссию! :) тов. Desjardins Bertrand вообще малаец... Хотя мне кажется, что спор малость беспредметный: какая на деле разница, потомок ли ты Иисуса или нет? Генам придается не то значение, имхо... А ведь точно так же можно искать среди кого-нить потомков греческого Зевса, который "согрешил" с Ио. Может им гены дадут право молнии метать из какого-нить места :)
БД: права (нам е-тание) у всех рав.ны, имхо
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