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The Political Forecasting Group
БД: Dear colleagues: A group of scholars and practitioners with an interest in forecasting political phenomena is forming a new organization under APSA's umbrella, and we are looking for others who might wish to join. The Political Forecasting Group aims to further forecasting applications in political science, and to improve communication among forecasters within the discipline. We currently have about 85 participants, of whom nearly 70 are APSA members. With support from the Political Methodology and Conflict Processes Sections, we organized a roundtable at the recently concluded APSA Annual Meeting that saw Drs. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Michael Lewis-Beck, Andrew Martin, Phil Schrodt, and Jay Ulfelder discussing what, how, and why they forecast, a list of topics that included congressional elections, Supreme Court decisions, civil-war onsets, and legislative outcomes. This fall, we will be applying for APSA Related Group status and hope to convene a panel at next year's meeting that will look at how various methods might be applied to forecast a single kind of political event or process. If you would like to participate in the Political Forecasting Group--which at this point primarily means being on an e-mail list, no dues required--please send an e-mail with the following information to Prof. Randall Jones, Univ. of Central Oklahoma (ranjones@ucok.edu): Name Institutional Affiliation Title Forecasting Interests E-mail address We hope to hear from some of you soon and look forward to broadening our methodological horizons. Regards, Jay Ulfelder Jay Ulfelder, Ph.D. Research Director Political Instability Task Force Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) (301) 588-8478 jay_ulfelder@stanfordalumni.org
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